This professor has a formula to predict the 2016 election

  • Ajoutée 22 juin 2016
  • American University professor Allan Lichtman joins CBSN to discuss his predictions for the 2016 race.

Commentaires • 173

  • wrsawy
    wrsawy Il y a 12 heures

    The Jim Acosta wanna be can't except it.

  • H L
    H L Il y a 3 mois


  • daniel johnston
    daniel johnston Il y a 3 mois +1

    Dudes good. Weird, science works. I wish I paid attention in school.

  • Richard Lamb
    Richard Lamb Il y a 6 mois +1

    This guy and Helmut Norpoth were correct. Larry Sabatao bless him was out by 90 in the electoral college.

  • listerone
    listerone Il y a 6 mois +4

    The Sate of Ohio has correctly predicted the outcome of every Presidential election since 1964. Donald J Trump carried Ohio by about 10 points.

  • Keith Waites
    Keith Waites Il y a 6 mois

    Well I'd vote for his wig anytime

    • Keith Waites
      Keith Waites Il y a 6 mois

      Not trump's wig, as he doesn't wear one

  • Tom Wilson
    Tom Wilson Il y a 8 mois

    CBSN, this was over 5 min. that said nothing at all... Not "Fake News"... This was "no news" at

  • Jeremy Lee
    Jeremy Lee Il y a 9 mois +5

    Thankfully the Presidency was NOT handed over to ignorance, racism, bigotry, and incompetence-Hillary LOST.

  • Harriett Randall
    Harriett Randall Il y a an +1

    Hahaha George Soros picks the presidents then pays this idiot to predict.

  • dont look at me
    dont look at me Il y a an

    i feel stupid

  • Tim Case
    Tim Case Il y a 2 ans

    I'm sorry but it's useless shit. Save the trees.

  • Joey Leroy
    Joey Leroy Il y a 2 ans +6

    SMART GUY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • TheSecondR
    TheSecondR Il y a 2 ans +34

    He was right again!

    • cnniz fakenewz
      cnniz fakenewz Il y a 4 jours

      You are a big cry baby like the rest of you soft dishonest liberals

    • Trump 4USA
      Trump 4USA Il y a an +1

      Christopher Johnson nice try *LOSER*

    • Mick
      Mick Il y a an +9

      Christopher Johnson But trump won the popular if you don't count illegal votes.

    • Christopher Johnson
      Christopher Johnson Il y a 2 ans +3

      TheSecondR He actually wasn't. The keys model is supposed to predict the popular vote winner, not the electoral winner.

    • Chelsea titles - 6 Arsenal titles - 13
      Chelsea titles - 6 Arsenal titles - 13 Il y a 2 ans +1

      TheSecondR ikr he is actually amazing

  • Brenda Jimenez
    Brenda Jimenez Il y a 2 ans

    trump is gonna screw the U.S. over !!! rethink who you vote for be SMART..

  • Gatorjoey64
    Gatorjoey64 Il y a 2 ans +1

    I'm sad that's he still not wrong

  • Acu Robbie
    Acu Robbie Il y a 2 ans

    look like Bloo if he was 70yrs old

  • Ramata
    Ramata Il y a 2 ans +3

    Has anybody looked into this guy? He seems just creepy. I see no scientific or popular argument that's has any basis in reality.

    • Keith Waites
      Keith Waites Il y a 6 mois

      Its his wig, it's hypnotising me,!

    • Trump 4USA
      Trump 4USA Il y a an +1

      Ramata 1980 baby! PRESIDENT TRUMP hahahaha

  • Maxumized
    Maxumized Il y a 2 ans +2

    He could sell a car from a picture

  • Juan Rivera
    Juan Rivera Il y a 2 ans +3

    Trump will be the President of McDonald's.... And there Wil be a Trump Circus. coming near you in 2017

    • Gordie Eggleston
      Gordie Eggleston Il y a 10 mois +1

      Well, looks like YOUR prediction failed to come true.

    • Thoreau
      Thoreau Il y a an +2

      Juan Rivera hasn't President Trump deported you yet? Hahaha!
      PS: are you still working at McDonald's?

  • RJ Walker
    RJ Walker Il y a 2 ans +1

    I'm not impressed at all that he has predicted every Presidential election correct since 1984. I'm no expert , and yet even I have only gotten one wrong since 1972. (I had thought Gore would beat Bush in 2000, and some would say I was still right). The fact of the matter is that most of the modern elections were predictable, especially once the debates were all done and the best polls released . The Gore/Bush election was an exception. That's about it. I haven't picked a winner for 2016 yet, because the debates haven't happened yet, which to me is everything. But this could be one of those rare elections that are not so predictable.

  • Alex Khong
    Alex Khong Il y a 2 ans +1

    Trump will crush isis and other so called rebel just for an excuses of obama & hillary,
    go Trump 53%, hillary bitch 42%

  • M&M Papaya
    M&M Papaya Il y a 2 ans +8

    Sorry but she's not going to win. Think about it, there hasn't been two democrats in a row even in how long? Lyndon Johnson(dem) Nixon(repub) ford(repub) carter(dem) Reagan(repub) Bush SR(repub) Bill clinton(dem) gwb(repub) obama(dem. Literally, it's been 53 years since that's happened(there being a democrat after a democrat) and it only happened because Jfk was murdered and LBJ was Vice President and took over.

  • Kijou
    Kijou Il y a 2 ans +17

    Maybe he knows trump will win but cbsn wont let him say it.

    • Rivka G
      Rivka G Il y a 2 ans +6

      Damn the mainstream media...

  • sofiadorci
    sofiadorci Il y a 2 ans

    He needs to take off that wig LOL.

  • Luca Cerasoli
    Luca Cerasoli Il y a 2 ans

    And this guy should be a professor?! He discovered hot water!

  • Pixieut
    Pixieut Il y a 2 ans

    Okay. Both conventions are over. Prediction?

  • Nicaraguan Translators
    Nicaraguan Translators Il y a 2 ans +6

    No doubt, Trump will win.

  • Bullets Forteeth FULL AUTO

    This quack is full of crap... Obama's the worst president this country has ever had. His approval rating has been in the toilet for years.

  • 1 Survivor
    1 Survivor Il y a 2 ans +2

    For those interested, the professor still hasn't made a prediction yet. Although a couple of weeks ago he said he's counted five strikes against a Hillary win. If there is a sixth, he thinks Trump wins the election.

  • A Krenwinkle
    A Krenwinkle Il y a 2 ans +2

    I'm trying to remember a more outrageous toupee, and come up with nada.

    • Trump 4USA
      Trump 4USA Il y a an

      11sweetdixie Spain

    • Trump 4USA
      Trump 4USA Il y a an

      A Krenwinkle Ted Koppel had a bad one!

    • KidBehindACamera 1
      KidBehindACamera 1 Il y a 2 ans

      It is his real hair but I agree it's not the real color

    • A Krenwinkle
      A Krenwinkle Il y a 2 ans

      +11sweetdixie You can't walk back your idiot statement, which says that since you had old relatives with thick, colorful hair, then it follows this guy's hair could be real, too, thanks to genetics. Listen, he could put a $6.99 Walmart bathmat on his head and it would seem more real. I don't get the feeling you won the IQ genetics derby.

    • 11sweetdixie
      11sweetdixie Il y a 2 ans

      I never said it was real. I was replying to Hunter Scott's comment that "nobody that old has that much hair or that hair color".
      Don't understand your need to direct a snarky remark to me.
      Just sayin' . . .

  • Bebe4 Usa
    Bebe4 Usa Il y a 2 ans

    What a fraud this idiot professor is...

    • Tyrone James
      Tyrone James Il y a 2 ans +1

      Corporate Media Lies Still think he's a fraud? ;)

    PATRIOT MAN Il y a 2 ans +22

    Trump is winning in North Carolina.

    • Ed Moritz
      Ed Moritz Il y a 4 mois +1

      @TheZeitergeist3 Hindsight's 2020

    • TheZeitergeist3
      TheZeitergeist3 Il y a 2 ans +1

      +ConstantineXI Palaiologos Well now he is, he wasn't on September 4th.

    • TheZeitergeist3
      TheZeitergeist3 Il y a 2 ans

      No he isn't...

  • Stuart Allen
    Stuart Allen Il y a 2 ans +2

    Why do people entertain idiots like this? People are not rational creatures - who they vote for is based on biases, appearances, advertising, and "gut feelings". None of these things can be quantified, and therefore cannot be plugged into a formula.

    • That Guy
      That Guy Il y a 2 ans

      Stuart Allen He was right

    • benjianubis
      benjianubis Il y a 2 ans +4


  • Jonothan Archer
    Jonothan Archer Il y a 2 ans

    Lichtman can shove his liberal agenda up his ass. Trump is going to win and he can't admit it!

  • Reality Films
    Reality Films Il y a 2 ans

    Lol this guy is a moron. He doesn't look at the campaigns? Are you kidding me? That is not froth its the central part of key analysis.

    • Jonas Seorum
      Jonas Seorum Il y a 9 mois

      He was right again

    • Sam
      Sam Il y a 2 ans +2

      LunchtimeGaming he's right again

  • NotMe,
    NotMe, Il y a 2 ans

    are you fucken kidding me???

  • Frightened Female
    Frightened Female Il y a 2 ans

    What a cop out. You're gonna get interviewed because you are a supposed "master" at predicting every single prez, but you can't even say that Trump is going to kill it....unbelievable. Such a puss.


    I made a couple of predictions of my own 1 the Republican party will cease to exist, since Trump took over its no longer the traditional rep party. 2 fox news would go thru a drastic change maybe even fold, Roger Aires scandal came out around that time. 3 Hillary would win and that is still on going.

      LETSLEEPING DOGSLIE Il y a 2 ans

      Doesn't All that make you a wee bit nervous? That the Democratic party was destroyed even though the majority of the people voted for Hillary and the other half didn't vote at all and Donald Trump still won? Not only are there protest here in our country but all over the world? This is a government take over friend a coup de tat! You better open your eyes to what is really going on here and stop being prideful for a second. The world is changing before your eyes and you act like a sore winner? This isn't any pep rally , this serious shit!

    • Sam
      Sam Il y a 2 ans +1


    • benjianubis
      benjianubis Il y a 2 ans

      haha i agree...good one

  • Dawn Lueders
    Dawn Lueders Il y a 2 ans

    Okay the conventions are over... lets hear the results... or predictions.

    • TheMchugh996 1
      TheMchugh996 1 Il y a 2 ans +2

      Or CBS will not let him back on to make his prediction. Knowing the media, Im probably right.

    • Alex McNeilly
      Alex McNeilly Il y a 2 ans +1

      Exactly... The conventions are long past, and his silence is deafening.
      Let's hope he is a Hillary supporter and what he 'foresaw' has driven him to truly super duper serious drinking, so much so, that it has left him totally incapable of climbing out of an alley on skid row.

  • jefftacsin911
    jefftacsin911 Il y a 2 ans +3

    its trump u can see it how can this country elect hillary whats bill clinton be the first man u can see the media just focusing on trump bc hes such a bossess grinch america loves these people trumpp will be elected

  • Official Colors
    Official Colors Il y a 2 ans +3


    • Francis Ramp
      Francis Ramp Il y a 2 ans

      +Tr “RTS” Sp
      HIV+??? That's a new one. I've heard the questions about her health.... coughing, seizures, weight gain, falling, head injury with blood clots.... but HIV??

    • Official Colors
      Official Colors Il y a 2 ans +2

      +Gilbert Vasquez don't let polls fool, Trump will win with a Landslide. Hillary couldn't even fill her convention nor can fill up rallies. she's may be HIV Positive or have brain damages.

    • Francis Ramp
      Francis Ramp Il y a 2 ans

      +Gilbert Vasquez
      No she won't. She'll be the next President of the United States.... but it won't be because she "won"....

    • Gilbert Vasquez
      Gilbert Vasquez Il y a 2 ans

      Hillary will win.

    • motivation is power
      motivation is power Il y a 2 ans +3

      Trump will win

  • Greg ######
    Greg ###### Il y a 2 ans +4

    Predict this. Election, 1980-Style. There was only one presidential debate in 1980 between challenger Ronald Reagan and President Jimmy Carter. Just two days before the October 28 debate, Carter was eight points ahead in the Gallup poll. Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed.
    A Gallup Poll of July 26, 1988, showed Michael S. Dukakis leading George H. W. Bush by 17 points. The New York Times reported,

    • Sam
      Sam Il y a 2 ans

      Greg #### yea I know. Fake news = NYT

  • Ilan Leibowitz
    Ilan Leibowitz Il y a 2 ans +2

    Awaiting his prediction!

  • kazzicup
    kazzicup Il y a 2 ans +10

    This professor is a con artist. I don't trust a man who wears a ring with a blue stone.

    • TheZXKUQYB
      TheZXKUQYB Il y a 9 mois

      Is the blue ring con artist theory still valid if he drives a car with red fog lights?

    • Ori Rosengarten
      Ori Rosengarten Il y a 9 mois

      Maybe He should change it to Red Stone now

    • Jason Blaha Fitness
      Jason Blaha Fitness Il y a an

      Jlink922 oh really

    • samplexample
      samplexample Il y a 2 ans

      so hes a con artist huh?

    • Zac Anaya
      Zac Anaya Il y a 2 ans

      maybe he just likes blue gemstones

  • The Snookman
    The Snookman Il y a 2 ans +1

    I would pay a $100 to see this guy's hairline. :)

  • benjianubis
    benjianubis Il y a 2 ans

    OK The convention is over so what's the verdict

  • pingstick
    pingstick Il y a 2 ans

    FOS why does he have to wait until the conventions are over if the formula is based on the previous administration's performance? Of course that is true. But, you wait anyhow nutcase.

  • Margo Jones
    Margo Jones Il y a 2 ans


    • EJ
      EJ Il y a 2 ans +1

      +JLS nope 😂

    • JLS
      JLS Il y a 2 ans

      I know

  • benjianubis
    benjianubis Il y a 2 ans +4

    ok well...i didnt see any prediction here

    • Sam
      Sam Il y a 2 ans +1

      benjianubis he got it right though :)

  • ConstantCompanion
    ConstantCompanion Il y a 2 ans

    Idiots. Thats like watching the Derby and calling the winner after the race. Idiot.

    • Sam
      Sam Il y a 2 ans

      ConstantCompanion he is right again! Who's the idiot now?

  • Race Bannon
    Race Bannon Il y a 2 ans +1

    Coocoo coocoo....
    He even resembles the bird in a cuckoo clock.
    This guy is nuttier than a squirrel turd.

    • Race Bannon
      Race Bannon Il y a 2 ans

      +The Juggernaut
      You can be right and still be a goof ball.
      Like you.

    • Race Bannon
      Race Bannon Il y a 2 ans

      Blow me!

    • Sam
      Sam Il y a 2 ans

      Heywood Jablowme he was 100% right

    • Jlink922
      Jlink922 Il y a 2 ans

      SHUT UP

  • What Doth Life
    What Doth Life Il y a 2 ans +30

    lmao that girl is just facebookin away in the background

  • Mike 79
    Mike 79 Il y a 2 ans +84

    Trump has 87% chance

    • cnniz fakenewz
      cnniz fakenewz Il y a 4 jours

      Hey Zac..You tried the election and lost.Then you tried collusion and lost.Now your all kicking and screaming try to pick the last pieces of meat off of the bone..Buahahahaha...Listen to me..Trump Huge landslide 2020.And after Trump comes Trump jr...Dems are done for a very long time.

    • JohnRegis
      JohnRegis Il y a 5 mois +1

      +Zach oof

    • Lucifer Morning Star
      Lucifer Morning Star Il y a 6 mois

      burger1018 ha ha

    • jeffw1267
      jeffw1267 Il y a 7 mois +1

      +burger1018 I hope that by now you realize the leftist polls are bogus. You can add at least 10% to the Republican side on any of them.

    • Wolfe p
      Wolfe p Il y a 8 mois

      I'm a fan of trump and voted for him but back then I would of just said 50 percent chance

  • John Richard
    John Richard Il y a 2 ans +30

    He won't say because the keys point to Trump winning and I think he's none too thrilled. If the keys have been accurate since 1984, there should be a rock solid prediction only months away from the election. The conventions will not turn any keys.

    • Gordie Eggleston
      Gordie Eggleston Il y a 10 mois

      Yup. And the guy is now predicting President Trump will be impeached (despite not having an "impeachments formula"). I think, like many Democrats, the guy is presently suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome.

    • That Person
      That Person Il y a 2 ans +3

      He's just said that he thinks Trump is going to win.

    • dntlss
      dntlss Il y a 2 ans +1

      Ha ha ha, thats funny (about every time you vote your candidate loses,happens to me too) and i know what you mean,I'm really not looking forward to having these people give out all the money i work for to bums for another 4 years but i guess thats out of my hands,really sucks,you last words are scary but they are also the truth, we are doomed.

    • Nick Dapprich
      Nick Dapprich Il y a 2 ans

      lol thats how i feel sometimes +Unfuckwithable Theophile

    • Race Bannon
      Race Bannon Il y a 2 ans +1

      I hope so too.
      Otherwise there may be nothing left to vote for.
      Hillary will sell this country to the highest bidder before then.

  • Lady Rowan
    Lady Rowan Il y a 2 ans

    Please sign, share , email, post, this needs to get out as much as possible. This petition is about election fraud which is not a partisan issue it is an American Issue, Thank you

    • The Worldly Psychopath
      The Worldly Psychopath Il y a 2 ans +1

      As I said, you can vote for Jill. All this "evidence" won't change my opinion.
      Believe me, I know what is wrong with the system and the hacking machines are not the problem. The problem is the lack of equal voting rights for independents and the huge disadvantages towards third party candidates. Not specific candidates like Clinton. Look, I think we are kind of in agreement here.

    • Lady Rowan
      Lady Rowan Il y a 2 ans

      The evidence is everywhere. look it up. do some research. It is not about belief it is about proof. I would give you sources but you would think they are biased or wrong or making things up so you need to do your own research. It was "rigged" which means "manipulated results to hand the primary to someone that did not get the popular vote." the flip flopping just makes her a liar (not very good qualification for a potus and enough for me not to vote for her by itself) She couldn't fill a school room, they used actors and sound machines. The voting machines were hacked or the exit polls would reflect the numbers on the machines and the polls the media and the facts were manipulated and there are witnesses. I hate to harp but your making no sense. Any way we need to vote for Jill she is the only one that will try to fix all this. endless wars killing children 90% drone civilian kill rate??? working for less paying for more., are you really happy with the status quo. Our planet is dyeing people are getting killed in the streets by our government we you and I have no rights left. Except speech and guns. They are trying to take both of those away. If you have a family the fossil fuel industry will kill all of them eventually. one way or another. people here are starving in the streets because our economic system is a scam on the rest of us perpetrated by the 1% bankers and itr filters down from there. the top 10% owns 90% of the wealth. and your fine with just going the same path. not me. I care about those starving people your wages my healthcare and yours my water quality and the people that I am responsible for as a citizen that is killing them. you too. we fund the military industrial complex with out blood sweat and tears every day. the status quo must go that's both major political parties in this country. the game needs to be un-rigged. the system needs to be un-rigged and people that kill children should be in jail forever. Our government must reflect compassion to change the course we are on. every vote counts or they wouldn't be trying to get us to vote for them. or maybe they just want us to think it does but we have to try. if the peaceful revolution does not succeed there will be a bloody one. right here in the usa. I see it , it has all happened before over and over and over again. how is that going to reflect on the cozy status quo., Please no matter what they pay you to say you live here to. i really do send my love and light and I hope you see we can change things we just have to act to change things.

    • The Worldly Psychopath
      The Worldly Psychopath Il y a 2 ans

      Vote for Jill Stein. I know you can't believe this, but more people voted for Clinton than Sanders no matter how much you complain about this election being "rigged." And yes, if rigged means a candidate changing her views on the issues then the election was rigged. But that, quite frankly is not what rigged means. Also, there wasn't really voter suppression. Roughly 45% of the electorate voted for Bernie. Hillary easily one the black, latino, and women vote, which easily constitutes more than half of the democratic party. Bernie only won the white millennial and vote, which is a substantial portion of the democratic electorate, but not enough to win. You could say the system is rigged in favor of two parties, like for example, third party candidates need a certain amount of signatures to win. But saying it is rigged in favor of Clinton is ludicrous even when considering the DNC emails. However, it alone does not prove the fact that the election was rigged.

    • Lady Rowan
      Lady Rowan Il y a 2 ans

      o and voter suppression, silencing the opposition and changing your rules in mid election and not counting votes are all rigging the election. and all of that was done with proof.

    • Lady Rowan
      Lady Rowan Il y a 2 ans

      easily hack able machines means just that the machines in most major cities are outdated and you can run untraceable algorithms to change the percentages according to design of the hacker. on line over the internet. , this is public information. and the exit polls were way off the charts in these districts. Some as hi as 30% the absolute margin of error should be 4% or less. We use those to validate other countries elections but they tried to cover up the discrepancies here by changing the data to reflect the supposed machine totals. . everyone is entitled to their vote but i personally will never vote for corruption or bigotry. i personally believe that trump is a Manchurian candidate and will drop out during the election. i came to this conclusion because of their 20+ years of friendship plus the hindsight knowledge that Kerry was that for Bush in his second term. knowing all this how can anyone vote for either of them? If you don't want corruption or billionaires to keep calling the shots running our freedoms and economy into the ground then you can't. Vote for them. She gives a crap about you the other candidates really don't. Neither trump are going to do anything to help the majority of the people. Jill Stein will. Look it all up please. our freedoms are more at risk now then ever. The last time the corporations had this much power in the us. a large majority of people lived in company towns a with companies houses and companies stores it was the 1800's and it was little more that a concentration camps with child labor 20 hr days and no off time ever. the people that are voting for either major party candidate are voting against their self interests unless they are billionaires themselves. You cannot vote for the lessor of two evils this time and expect any good to come of it. Vote for Good. Vote for Jill. tha5ts what im doing that is.

  • lifefource
    lifefource Il y a 2 ans +4

    So he predicted Bush would get elected in 2000? If he did, he got lucky as hell and his methods have failed because Gore received more votes and only the Supreme Court intervention appointed Bush.

    • Trump 4USA
      Trump 4USA Il y a an +1

      lifefource lies. *Sore LOSER LIBTARDS*

    • WF6i
      WF6i Il y a an +2

      If the courts stayed out of it GWB would have been official the day after the election. The US supreme court simply blocked the Florida supreme court from meddling in the election.

    • Sam
      Sam Il y a 2 ans

      lifefource he was right again!

    • jefftacsin911
      jefftacsin911 Il y a 2 ans +3

      buddy gore loss no matter wat

    • benjianubis
      benjianubis Il y a 2 ans

      +Ryan Fine yeah well..let's not forget that technically al Gore won...but the bush's sabotaged it

  • Princess Chloe
    Princess Chloe Il y a 2 ans +1

    So pretty much he can't predict the way he thinks then?i mean if he predicts shit two years in advance the wtf it's five months away?this makes no sense!!annoying